OBJECTIVE: To compare the rates among of recidivism or re-offense among convicted child molesters who offend against biological children, stepchildren, and relationships where the child is an extended family member, acquaintance or stranger to the victim.
METHOD: Four hundred male subjects 18 years of age or older and at least 5 years older than the victim at the time of the index offense, were convicted of a hands on sexual offense against one or more children under the age of 16. Subjects were grouped into five categories according to the type of relationship the perpetrator had with the victim. The subjects records of criminal arrests and convictions was obtained from the national Royal Canadian Mounted Police data. Subjects were then followed-up for a period of up to 15 years after conviction when they were at risk to re-offend in the community. Survival outcome data after the index sexual offense was collected for all new sexual, violent, and any criminal offenses. RESULTS: A larger proportion of men ( 16.2%) who sexually offended against children who were acquaintances, were charged with a new sexual offense than men who sexually offended against biological (4.8%) or their stepchildren (5.1%). The percentage of men who were subsequently charged with any type of criminal offense and who offended against their biological children (19%) was smaller than men who offended against children where the relationship is an extended family member (40%), acquaintances (35.9%) or strangers (45.2%).
CONCLUSIONS: When comparing the different categories of relationship the victim had with the perpetrator, the category of stranger has been highlighted as a group with a higher risk for re-offense. Our results have shown that comparatively, the risk of acquaintance group is a significantly higher risk category than was previously thought. Although professionals are principally concerned with sexual recidivism, general criminality appears to present in relatively large proportions of all child molesters with the stranger group at the highest risk level. While no single factor will predict recidivism in itself, the importance of defining the relationship between the perpetrator and victim is evident from this study.
This paper identifies from the literature risk factors for reoffending in convicted sex offenders. Unless all sex offenders are to be incarcerated for indeterminate lengths of time, some means to separate higher from lower risk men is clearly necessary. The complexities of the move from identifying high-risk groups to predicting risk in specific individuals is discussed. It is argued that the focus should be shifted from the search for single, putatively predictive variables to an attempt to understand why recidivism occurs. Conclusions: There is a general consensus in the literature about those biographical variables that predict recidivism, but there is much less discussion about why these variables have the effects they do. Overall, identification of those at low risk and those at exceptionally high risk of reoffending is good, although prediction of the future offending behaviour of individuals in between is much less satisfactory. For actuarial studies to have clinical relevance, they must also be shown to be able to contribute to risk assessment in specific cases, and to help formulate treatment needs. This will require movement away from a blind reliance on variables for their own sake to a fuller understanding of how these variables relate to the phenomenon of sexual offending.
Evidence from 61 follow-up studies was examined to identify the factors most strongly related to recidivism among sexual offenders. On average, the sexual offense recidivism rate was low (13.4%; n = 23.393). There were, however, subgroups of offenders who recidivated at high rates. Sexual offense recidivism was best predicted by measures of sexual deviancy (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, prior sexual offenses) and, to a lesser extent, by general criminological factors (e.g., age, total prior offenses). Those offenders who failed to complete treatment were at higher risk for reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile delinquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.
Given the importance of effective community supervision of sexual offenders, there is surprisingly little research indicating when sexual offenders are likely to re-offend. In the present study, information on dynamic (changeable) risk factors was collected through interviews with community supervision officers and file reviews of 208 sexual offense recidivists and 201 non-recidivists. The sexual offenders were selected from all regions of the Correctional Service of Canada and from all provinces (except P.E.I.). The recidivists had committed a new sexual offense while on some form of community supervision (probation, parole, mandatory supervision). The non-recidivists were matched to the recidivists on victim type, criminal history, geographical region and jurisdiction. The study examined approximately equal numbers of rapists, boy-victim child molesters and girl-victim child molesters.
Despite efforts to match the recidivistic and non-recidivistic groups, some differences remained in static, historical variables. In comparison to the non-recidivists, the recidivists had a greater history of sexual deviance, such as diverse types of victims, stranger victims, juvenile offenses and paraphilias (e.g., exhibitionism, cross-dressing). As well, the recidivists showed more signs of an antisocial lifestyle than did the non-recidivists. The recidivists were more likely to meet criteria for antisocial personality, psychopathy (PCL-R), and had higher scores on objective risk scales (SIR and VRAG).
Officer interviews indicated that the recidivists displayed more problems while on supervision than did the non-recidivists. In particular, the recidivists were generally considered to have poor social supports, attitudes tolerant of sexual assault, antisocial behaviour, poor self-management strategies and difficulties cooperating with supervision. The overall mood of the recidivists and non-recidivists was similar, but the recidivists showed increased anger and subjective distress just prior to re-offending.
More of the recidivists than the non-recidivists were using sex drive reducing medications (anti-androgens). A possible explanation is that officers insisted on medication only for the most severe cases. The study was not intended to test the efficacy of hormonal treatments; nevertheless, officers should be aware that sexual offenders still present considerable risk for sexual offense recidivism after the introduction of sex drive reducing medication.
The offenders' attitudes and behaviour during supervision continued to be strongly associated with recidivism even after controlling for pre-existing differences in static risk factors (overall R = .60, p < .001). The dynamic factors identified in the interview data were reflected (to a lesser extent) in the officers' contemporaneous case notes, which suggests that the interview findings cannot be completely attributed to retrospective recall bias.
Carefully monitoring the risk indicators identified in this study should help officers to provide graduated and responsive interventions well before the point of no return.
Forensic and clinical psychologists have long been asked to make predictions about violence, despite the fact that, in the past, such predictions have been notoriously inaccurate. Several states now have sexual predator laws which require predictions to be made concerning the likelihood of recidivism. Since the U.S. Supreme Court in Kansas v. Hendricks (1997) upheld Kansas's sexual predator laws, such requests are likely to increase in the future. Fortunately, there is now ongoing empirical research which has improved psychologists' ability to predict violence in high risk groups. Several schemes for predict violence are in the process of research and development.